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Of the £1.4bn of shopping centres launched for sale in the second half of last year, just £80m changed hands, according to data from Ellandi released exclusively to React News.
The first half of 2022 performed strongly, with £850m of deals completed, and the average lot size started to creep up to around £28m after a torrid few years of low valuations. Driven by this momentum, the summer and second half of the year saw a spate of assets, including some particularly large lot sizes, put up for sale to tempt the rising investor appetite. In total, 28 assets valued at a total of £1.4bn were brought to market in the second half of 2022.
Many smaller centre sales were still driven by distressed debt-led situations, as the retail sector’s collapse in valuations and the remains of Covid-19 challenges still worked their way through the system. However the return of some confidence led to banks being more positive in the pricing of assets being put up for sale. Of the £1.4bn, £650m was made up of just four centres – the £250m Churchill Square in Brighton, the £140m Union Square in Aberdeen, the £130m Festival Place in Basingstoke and the £150m Highcross in Leicester.
In November, React News reported that the ongoing negotiations around the sale of these assets were all frozen in time. While some movement is understood to have been made behind the scenes, no deals have completed.
Overall, just £80m of shopping centres launched for sale in the second half sold, with the rest of the numbers made up by assets put up for sale much earlier in the year or in 2021.
The sale values also struggled to reach the heights many had hoped for. Golden Square in Warrington sold for £23m, Harvey Centre in Harlow sold for£21m, the Belfry in Redhill for £17m, Ards in Newtonards for £15m and Bon Accord, a centre once sold for £189m, for £7m.
All the other assets are either under offer or were under offer at one point, demonstrating some degree of investor demand, if not the confidence many had hoped for.
David Cohen, director of restructuring and investment at Ellandi says, “The brakes were slammed in the second half of 2022, as the UK political and economic environment was in crisis mode. This provided yet another shock to the retail sector, eliminating the positivity that had been building at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. However, investor demand for shopping centres remains strong, spurred on by all-time low pricing, affordable and significantly reduced occupational costs and realistic value-add opportunities. The reintroduction of accretive leverage is a vital missing ingredient, and when this returns we expect to see the market propelled forward once again, with the sector’s relative value becoming more widely recognised.”